Close to half a million people are at risk of being affected by adverse weather conditions that include tropical cyclones, flash floods, landslides and hailstorms.
Weather forecasts also project that at least five cyclones will hit the country this rainy season.
The Department of Civil Protection projects that 250 000 people, including 90 000 children, will be affected by floods, flash flooding, hailstorms and strong winds countrywide this season, with areas such as Gokwe North and South Gweru urban (Midlands province); and lower Muzarabani, Mt Darwin and Mbire (Mashonaland Central); as well as Chikomba and Mudzi in Mashonaland East set to be most affected.
Up to 10 000 others will likely be displaced, while 30 000 children are set to be left without classrooms.
According to the department’s Multi-Hazard National Contingency Plan for the 2022-2023 rainfall season, tropical cyclones are projected to affect about 125 000 people and displace up to 20 000 others.
The cyclones are preliminarily projected to make landfall in areas such as Middle Sabi, Buhera, Mutare, Mutasa, Nyanga and Mutare Urban in Manicaland province.
The cyclones are also expected to hit Chikomba and Mudzi in Mashonaland East; and Hwange, Binga and Tsholotsho (Matabeleland North), as well as Chiredzi, Gutu and Bikita in Masvingo.
Landslides are expected to affect more than 20 000 people in Chimanimani, Chipinge, Nyanga, in Manicaland province.
Water-borne diseases
In addition, outbreaks of water-borne diseases such as typhoid, dysentery and cholera are expected to affect around 25 000 others countrywide. The Department of Civil Protection has since submitted a US$88 million budget to fund rapid response to natural disasters during the rainy season.
According to the department’s preparedness report, there is increasing evidence that natural disasters will increase this season.
“Given a predominantly normal to above normal season for most parts of the country, an upsurge is likely in frequency and severity of seasonal hazard impacts in all provinces of the country affecting an estimated 250 000 people and their livelihoods mainly in landslide and flood-prone areas,” reads the report in part.
Severe thunderstorms
“These hazards include tropical cyclones, riverine flooding, flash floods, landslides, heat waves, severe thunderstorms, hailstorms, fires, human and animal epidemics, water-borne diseases, crop pests, strong winds, mid-season dry spells, mine accidents and road traffic accidents.
“Prioritisation of the hazards was reached through consensus that they were most likely to happen and cause disasters within the next twelve months.”
According to the report, national dams are expected to be between 95 percent and 95,6 percent full by the end of March next year. The weather hazards, according to the department, will also cause massive damage on infrastructure, including roads and bridges.
“Possibility of heavy rains will increase risks of flooding and displacement of people living in high-risk areas, especially in flood and landslide-prone areas.
“Frequently occurring accidents such as traffic and mining accidents are likely to heighten due to hazard impacts related to the rainfall season.
“Due to increased cyclonic events, the country is likely to experience more than two cyclones having landfall during the 2022/2023 rainfall season.”
Speaking during the National Tobacco Workshop last week, Meteorological Services Department (MSD) meteorologist Mr Benjamin Kwenda said there would be increased incidence of cyclones this season.
“This season we are anticipating an increase in cyclone activity in January, February, March up to April, but in terms of projections, we are expecting five cyclones,” he said.
Weather outlook
Responding to questions from this publication, the MSD said the current wet spell is projected to continue up to March 2023.
Manicaland, Mashonaland East and Masvingo provinces have so far received the highest amount of rainfall.
“Most areas have received seasonal totals of above 80mm since the start of the rainfall season,” said MSD.
“A few pockets along the Zambezi Valley are yet to receive significant rainfall.
“The highest rainfall amounts have been recorded at Chisengu 408mm, Bikita 374mm and Macheke 339mm.
“During the same period, the bulk of the country has received normal or above normal rainfall, with the exception of a small area in Matabeleland North province.”
The country, said the MSD, is likely to receive normal to above normal rainfall this season.
“In region 1, which covers Mashonaland provinces, Harare, most of Manicaland, northern parts of Masvingo and northern parts of Midlands, there are increased chances of normal to above normal rainfall.
“In region 2, which covers the greater part of Matabeleland North, north-west Matabeleland South and Bulawayo, there are increased chances of normal to above normal rainfall, while in region 3, which covers the greater part of Masvingo, the extreme southern parts of Manicaland, southeast Matabeleland South and the southern parts of Midlands, chances are high of normal to above normal rainfall.”
MSD said the department will continue monitoring seasonal climate indicators which influence Zimbabwe’s rainfall as they evolve.
“Observations made in recent seasons are that heavy storms followed by periods of elevated temperatures are getting more frequent.
“Violent storms, flash floods are more likely to occur.
“Prolonged dry spells may occur as the season continues while the occurrence of tropical cyclones is a possibility during the season.
“Tropical cyclone activity that has potential to affect Zimbabwe is expected between January and March.”
To avert disaster, Government has operationalised its disaster response machinery and enhaced coordination with humanitarian and development partners that include the United Nations organizations, private voluntary organisations, the Zimbabwe Red Cross Society, the private sector, faith-based organisations and others to complement Government disaster risk reduction and development initiatives.
Reads the Department of Civil Protection preparedness report: “The Provincial and District Development Coordinators, Local Authorities incorporating Ward and Village structures at the community level coordinate civil protection activities at that level.
“The Ward and Village structures in rural areas are chaired by the respective traditional leadership that is Chiefs, headmen and village heads.
“There are 36 000 village heads around the country and these are used for preparedness and response to any forms of hazards.
“In urban areas where there are no traditional leaders, the Minister is empowered by the Civil Protection Act to appoint Government extension workers as area civil protection officers to take the coordination role.”
The Department of Civil Protection has since submitted a US$88 million budget to fund coordinated rapid response to natural disasters during the rainy season. – Sunday Mail
